Phoenix Real Estate Market Report – November 2018

…(looking back at October)

• Active Listings versus last year – down 3.7% – but up 6.7% compared to last month
• Listings Pending: versus last year – down 15.5% – and down 8.2% from last month
• Under Contract Listings (including Pending, CCBS, & UCB) – down 13.6%  compared to last year – and down 6.3% down from last month
• Monthly Sales: down 1.4% – but up 3.4% from last month
• Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft. up 9.8% this year – and up 2.6% from last month
• Monthly Median Sales Price: $258,000 versus $246,000 last year – up 4.6% – and up 0.8% from $260,000 last month

Phoenix Real Estate Market Report – November 2018 Insights

The inventory of active listings waiting for a contract increased by 6.7% in October, and the total active listings surged by 5.0%. The increases are far beyond what we saw in October 2017 (2.7% and 2.8% respectively). Therefore the available inventory is improved from the buyer perspective.

The obvious contributor would be an increase in active listings, however, in fact, we saw 3% fewer newly listed properties in October cs the same time in 2017.

What we are seeing is a steep dip in demand. This tells us that substantially fewer listings found buyers in October.

The significant drop in homes under contract points to a likelihood of fewer closings as we close out the 2018 year.

7,065 looks like a good number of sales for October. However, October 23 working days; that’s the maximum possible in a month – so we were anticipating quite a few more closed sales. Furthermore, the surprising reduction in sales points to softening of apparent demand.

What Does Father Time Have In Store for the Future?

Price reductions are more frequent too – we are seeing more price cuts in late October since way back in early 2015. Now that the buyer frenzy is starting to chill sellers are having to adjust price in order to get those buyers off the fence.

Prices overall still increased by 2.6% in the month of October. Clearly, not all sellers are yet aware of the reduced buyer enthusiasm for the market. Perhaps these sellers will be making their price cuts if their homes don’t garnish the offers they anticipate in as short a time as they had hoped.

Entry-level priced properties remain scarce. The higher end homes are beginning to crowd the market. This trend still has momentum. It will be interesting to see when the thirst for these properties is quenched.

Everyone will wonder if this is the beginning of a continued price reduction in the overall market or if this is simply a brief correction that will catapult into the 2019 year.

There was an even more significant spiral downtrend in 2013. That made the market pucker up into 2014.

It didn’t take long for the market to rebound. In 2015 watched momentum keep on chugging along all the way into mid-2018.  

It does seem that change is on the horizon. We will continue to monitor the shifts. As we gather the coming months of data the pattern will unveil itself.

Price Cuts:  More than 3.5 years are passed since we last witnessed this number of price reductions.

The average price for the residential real estate in Greater Phoenix currently sits at $325,669. That’s down from the previous month.

The monthly median sales price dropped slightly from the previous month. We should take note that the median sales price is currently higher than it was at this time last year.

The number of months supply for the Phoenix Metropolitan housing market has gone up. Currently, it is at 2.4 months. Last month it was at 1.9 months. Don’t be too alarmed. As we enter the cooler months it is normal for our market to see a spike in inventory.

The monthly average sales price per square foot dipped to $168.13 from $173.93 in the previous month. Let’s continue on with the Phoenix Real Estate Market Report – November 2018.

The number of home sales in October 2018 was 7,065. October 2017 was essentially the same at 7,029; a difference of 36 homes, or a 1/2 of 1% change.

Inventory is on the rise. We expect this shift as we gain sellers wanting to take advantage of the winter visitors looking for a home.

The current number of active listings is at 17,258 which is down from 17,360 at the same time last year.

The green line represents the average list price at the time of contracts. The blue line is for the average sales price. These two numbers are within 97.9% of each other.

Highlights

• Homes are generally selling faster. Currently, the average number of days on market is only 32 days compared to 34 days last month. Can you say, SELLERS Market?!
• 81% of realtors® say that housing prices are sitting tight or up slightly from this time last year.
• 32% of home sales were accounted for by first time home buyers. This is up from last months number of 29%.
• Cash Sales are up to 21% compared to 20% of the market last month.

Condominium Numbers – Phoenix Real Estate Market Report – November 2018 

The average number of days on market for a condo is down t0 57 days versus 60 days at the same time last year. The demand for condos could be a result of the increased cost to get into a single family home.

Local homebuilders are bullish on the current market. Some builders, like Taylor Morrison, will double down on Greater Phoenix. There doesn’t seem to be any plans to tap on the brake pedal in the new home builder community. The new housing industry is currently enjoying fabulous gains and will be one of the first industries tracked in the stock market to show flashes of a slow down in the national economy as it relates to real estate.

What’s New On the Housing Market?

Check out the new home builder inventory in Phoenix and adjacent cities.

For more information about local and national new home-builders reach out to us. You can call or text John directly at 1-480-442-3501.

Thank you for reading our Phoenix Real Estate Market Report – November 2018. We will be back next month with more information.

Wondering what your home might be worth? Find out instantly with our 15-second home value calculator.

See Additional Reports on the Phoenix Real Estate Market

Here’s the most recent home listings just added to the database in the average price range for Phoenix.

All homes here are priced at $300,000 or less.